NFL Week 17 Sharp Money Report Vegas wiseguys back Chiefs vs. Bengals
NFL Week 17 Sharp Money Report Vegas wiseguys back Chiefs vs. Bengals
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LAS VEGAS Nick Niemann Jersey After a 6-1 start, Kansas City has dropped five of its past eight games. Worse, three have been at home, to Philly (21-17), Buffalo (20-17) and Las Vegas (20-14).How can KC, which has won two of the previous four Super Bowls, lose a home game to a Raiders team whose quarterback doesnt complete double-digit pa ses and whose offense doesnt even score a touchdown?Yet, for Sundays Bengals game at Kansas City, the Chiefs opened as 6.5-point favorites and sharp, early cash moved that to 7 by Wednesday.I gue s (bettors) dont believe the Chiefs can lose another game at home, which they probably wont to this team, DraftKings director of race and sports and veteran Vegas oddsman Johnny Avello told Sporting News.Vegas quarterback Aiden OConnell went 9-for-21, for 62 yards. Zamir White, the second-year tailback out of Georgia, rambled 22 times for a career-best 145 yards, but he didnt score, either.Defensive tackle Bilal Nichols returned a fumble into the end zone for the Raiders, and cornerback Jack Jones intercepted a Patrick Mahomes pa s to tally the other touchdown.The 9-6 Chiefs finish their regular season next week at the LA Chargers. If Kansas City isnt careful, Denver or Las Vegas, both 7-8, might make some mayhem in the AFC West.Avello, however, doesnt believe such doomsday scenarios will unfold for the Chiefs, mainly because Jake Browning is Cincinnatis quarterback, not Joe Burrow.There had been too much stock in Browning going into the game last week against the Steelers, Avello says. This guy was due, his QB Rating was through the roof, and the Steelers had had enough of it.Avello laughs.The Steelers didnt want to hear anymore about how good he was, and how bad they were. So they shut the door on that team.Browning had directed Cincy to three consecutive victories, averaging 318 aerial yards, with five TDs and two interceptions.At Pittsburgh, he collected 335 yards through the air and a TD, but three pa ses were picked off in the Bengals 34-11 defeat.Avello looks to KC bo s Andy Reid.An excellent coach. I would think hes trying to find answers. This team cant go into the last two weeks and just coast. Theyll give all they have to win and get this team back on track.Theyre not scoring a lot and their defense certainly doesnt shut anybody down, but they dont want to just get in the postseason; they want to go far, and they want to win.Here's a look at some of the biggest Week 17 games, along with the latest , and insights from Avello.Miami Dolphins (11-4, 10-5 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (11-3, 9-5 ATS)Sunday, 1 p.m.M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MDWe were treated to two quasi-Super Bowls last week, in Dallas-Miami and Baltimore-San Francisco, and are gifted with a quasi-AFC Championship here.Im expecting this to be one of the biggest writes of the day, Avello says. I think it might out-handle every other game, except for the late one. Probably none have the meaning of Fins-Ravens .Well see who gets the No. 1 seed in the AFC, although it still isnt over as Miami plays Buffalo next week.The Ravens finish in Pittsburgh.Miami is 1-4 in Baltimore this century, the victory (42-38) coming a year ago.Related: Las Vegas Raiders (6-8, 7-5-2 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (8-7, 9-6 ATS)Sunday, 1 p.m. ETLucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, INAvello still cant solve how Vegas won in KC.Dont ask me how.However, over the past three NFL games, the Raiders sport a league-best 0.311 points-per-play margin.Carolina Panthers (2-13, 4-9-2 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7, 8-7 ATS)Sunday, 1 p.m. ETTIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FLJags QB Trevor Lawrence (ankle, shoulder, knee, concu sion) has taken a licking, but he just keeps ticking. Timex, hit this guy up for an ad.A tough year for him, injury-wise, Avello says. Last week, I think it was his shoulder? But he hasnt mi sed an NFL game. Hes certainly a competitor and likes to be out there.Since having two pa ses intercepted in a rough home defeat against San Francisco, Lawrence hasnt suffered multiple pickoffs in any game; Jacksonville is 6-2 in that run, and he has nine TD pa ses with only four picks.More NFL wagering: | Los Angeles Rams (8-7, 9-5-1 ATS) at New York Giants (5-9, 5-8-1 ATS)Sunday, 1 p.m. ETMetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJThe Rams need only three weeks for a le son, and insights, about this game. Thats when the 6.5-point-favorite Packers went to the Giants and lost, 24-22.And the Rams are pretty equivalent, Id say, to the Packers, as far as power ratings, Avello says. Believe me, the Giants will try to win and try to get to seven wins this season. They wont lay down.It might be weird to bettors, but teams that are out of the playoff picture will take chances they wouldnt normally take. Fourth and two at Ty Long Jersey their own 47? They might go for it instead of punt because they have nothing to lose.Review another Packers game, the regular-season finale a year ago at home against Detroit, for further proof of Avellos words.In his past four starts, Rams QB Matthew Stafford has thrown 10 TD pa ses and had none picked off. Over his past five, thats 14-1.New Orleans Saints (7-8, 4-10-1 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7, 10-5 ATS)Sunday, 1 p.m. ETRaymond James Stadium, Tampa, FLTampa QB Baker Mayfield has won four in a row, and five of his past seven, and hasnt had a pa s picked off in his past 92 throws, over three games; a span in which he has eight TD pa ses and has run in a shorty, too.Mike Evans has 13 TD receptions from Mayfield this year, eight in the past seven weeks.San Francisco 49ers (11-3, 8-6 ATS) at Washington Commanders (4-11, 6-8-1 ATS)Sunday, 1 p.m. ETFedEx Field, Landover, MDThat whoosh everyone heard last Sunday was the air going out of Brock Purdys MVP campaign for San Francisco in Baltimores 33-19 triumph in Santa Clara.Now they go play a Commanders team that has lost six in a row and has won only once at home, Avello says. Theyve only scored 309 points, while the Niners have 444. Washington has sold their whole defensive package.How do the Commanders stop the Niners?Who's the new front-runner?: Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7, 8-7 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (8-7, 7-6-2 ATS)Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ETLumen Field, Seattle, WAThe Steelers are 1-8 lifetime in the Emerald CityBut the push is slightly toward the Steelers, Avello says. I wont be surprised if this game closes 3. The money is trending that way.Cincinnati Bengals (8-7, 6-7-2 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-5, 7-7 ATS)Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ETGEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MOThe cash has been coming in on KC, despite the many woes of the Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes.The Chiefs have lost five of their past eight, a span in which Mahomes has 11 TD pa ses and eight interceptions; hes connected on more than two-thirds of his throws only twice.Scramble like he does and you usually find someone downfield, Avello says. But he cant find anybody.The temperature might squeak above freezing during the game, and sustained 11-mph winds are expected.Green Bay Packers (7-8, 7-8) at Minnesota Vikings (7-8, 7-5-3)Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ETU.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MNThis spread has Justin Jackson Jersey been sliced down from 2, and cash has ballooned a 43.5 opening total to 46.It will continue to go up, Avello says, and I wont be surprised if it hits 47, 47.5. Its inside, so no weather i sues. Field goals are almost automatic, and both teams can move the ball.Minnesota lost tight end TJ Hockenson (knee) who had team highs with 127 targets and 95 receptions, and five TDs were second for the season.Hes worth a full point, Avello says of Minnesotas power rating. That hasnt showed up in the line, yet. Every team needs a guy like Hockenson, your go-to guy in crucial third-down and game-scoring situations.Packers cash has whittled half a point from a 2-point opening spread. Over their past three games, however, Green Bay has yielded an NFL-worst 9.5 yards per pa s to foes.Two games ago, Vikes receiver Jordan Addison turned six catches into 111 yards and two TDs. Last week, Justin Jefferson had six for 141 yards and a score. If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation. Sporting News has editorial oversight for this content.
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